Assessment of Atmospheric Stability Indices for Thunderstorm Forecasting over Absheron Peninsula

Document Type : Research Notes

Authors

Department of Aviation Meteorology, National Aviation Academy of AZAL CJSC, Baku, Azerbaijan.

Abstract

This study examines the application of various thunderstorm indices to predict the occurrence of thunderstorms over the Absheron Peninsula. By considering thermodynamic indices such as the K index, lifted index (LI), Showalter index (SI), Thompson index, S index, Total Totals (TT) and SWEAT, and comparing their ability to forecast thunderstorms, more insight is gained into the vertical thermodynamic structure over the Absheron Peninsula.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models corresponding to the territory of Heydar Aliyev International Airport (UBBB) were used to calculate the indices. To facilitate the calculations, a software tool was developed in the C# programming language, which automates the process of selecting the required meteorological parameters. The generated data series are used as input for calculating the indices. The implementation of this software enhances the efficiency of the forecasting process, significantly reducing the time required by meteorologists. Based on the results of the study, a number of the indices produced relatively high skill scores and can serve as an initial guide for forecasters in determining the occurrence of thunderstorms. Among the indices, the SWEAT index demonstrated the highest forecasting skill, followed by LI, Thompson, S, SI, and TT. The K index, however, showed the lowest skill scores. These results are comparable to those of other studies that have examined thunderstorm occurrence.

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References

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Journal of the Earth and Space Physics
Volume 51, Issue 4
online publication date: 17 March 2026
March 2026
Pages 125-131

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