Assessment of Atmospheric Stability Indices for thunderstorm forecasting over Absheron Peninsula

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Notes

Author

National Aviation Academy, Baku, Azerbaijan

Abstract

This study examines the application of various thunderstorm indices to predict the occurrence of thunderstorms over the Absheron Peninsula. By considering thermodynamic indices such as K index, Lifted index (LI), Showalter (SI), Thompson, S, Total Totals (TT) and SWEAT and comparing their ability to forecast thunderstorms, more insight is gained into the vertical thermodynamic structure over Absheron Peninsula.

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models corresponding to the territory of Heydar Aliyev International Airport (UBBB) were used to calculate the indices. To facilitate the calculations, a software tool was developed in the C# programming language, which automates the process of selecting the required meteorological parameters. The generated data series are used as input for calculating the indices. The implementation of this software enhances the efficiency of the forecasting process, significantly reducing the time required by meteorologists. From the results of the study, a number of the indices produced relatively high skill scores and can serve as an initial guide for forecasters in determining the occurrence of thunderstorms. Among the indices, the SWEAT index demonstrated the highest forecasting skill, and then LI, Thompson, S, SI, and TT. The K, however, showed the lowest skill scores. These results are comparable to other studies that have examined thunderstorm occurrence.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Journal of the Earth and Space Physics

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 19 October 2025

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics