Quantification and assessment of effective of global warming on the occurrence of heat and cold waves in some selected stations in Iran


1 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran

2 M.Sc. Student, Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran


One of the atmospheric hazards that seriously affect human life and health is the occurrence of thermal tensions and stress in the form of heat and cold waves. Iran is one of the areas of the planet that has climate variability due to its geographical characteristics; therefore, consequently, its different regions are not immune to heat and cold waves. On the other hand, Iran's climate variability is the factor causing the difference between thresholds of heat and cold wave occurrence for its different regions. Therefore, in this study, based on three different thresholds, spatial analysis of the frequency of occurrence of heat and cold waves has been done. Thus in this work, using average daily data from 1960 to 2014, PET (Physiological Equivalent Temperature) was used to monitor heat and cold waves of four stations in Iran. Results of this study showed that in the context of global warming, although significant differences in the frequency of cold waves cannot be seen, these changes are significant and increasing for the frequency of occurrence of heat waves of selected station.


Main Subjects

Sanaee, M., Khanmohammadi, M. and Mohammadi, H., 2013, The analysis of synoptic pattern of the hazardous event of heat wave of summer 2013 and death caused by pollution in Tehran, Journal of Knowledge of Risk, Issue 1, 67 - 83.
Darand, M., 2014, The identification and analysis of spatio-temporal heat waves of Iran, Journal of Geography and Development, number 35, 167-180.
Esmaeelinejad, M., 2012, Identification of heat waves of Iran and its relationship with synoptic pattern. Doctoral thesis of physical geography, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran.
Karimi, S., Negaresh, H., Tavoosi, D. and Alijani, B., 2012, Synoptic analysis of the Comprehensive cold waves of Iran, Geography and Development Journal, 29, 55-76.
Masoodian, A., 2004, Investigation of Iran’s temperature trend in the last half century, Geography and Development journal, Issue3.
Alexander, L. and Arblaster, J., 2009, Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections, Int. J. Climatol. 29, 417–435.
Aylin, P., Morris, S., Wakefield, J., Grossinho, A., Jaru, L. and Elliott, P., 2001, Temperature, housing, deprivation and their relationship to excess winter mortality in Great Britain 1986–1996. Int. J. Epidemiol., 30, 1100–1108. doi:10.1093/ije/30.5.1100.
Ballester, F., Michelozzi, P. and Iniguez, C., 2003, Weather, climate and public health. J Epidemiol Community Health, 57, 759–760.
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Ricardo M. Trigo, M. R and García-Herrera, R., 2011, The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science, 332, 220–224.
Bartholy, J. and Pongracz, R., 2007, Regional analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation indices for the Carpathian Basin from 1946 to 2001. Glob. Planet. Change, 57(1), 83–95.
Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Gelybo, G. and Szabo, P., 2008, Analysis of expected climate change in the Carpathian Basin using the PRUDENCE  results. Idoiaras, 112(3–4), 249–264.
Basarin, B., Lukić, T. and Matzarakis, A., 2015, Quantification and assessment of heat and cold waves in Novi Sad, Northern Serbia, Int. J. Biometeorol., doi:10.1007/s00484-015-1012-z.
Basu, R. and Samet, J. M., 2002, Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol. Rev., 24, 190–202.
Beniston, M., 2004, The 2003 heat wave in Europe: a shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L02202.
Beniston, M. and Diaz, H. F., 2004, The 2003 heat wave as an example of summers in a greenhouse climate? Observations and climate model simulations for Basel, Switzerland. Global and Planetary Change, 44, 73–81.
Bøkenes, L., Alexandersen, T. E., Østerud, B., Tveita, T. and Mercer, J. B., 2000, Physiological and hematological responses to cold exposure in the elderly. Int. J. Circumpolar. Health, 59, 216–221.
Christoph, S. and Gerd, J., 2004, Hot news from summer 2003. Nature, 432, 559–560.
Ding, T., Qian, W. H. and Yan, Z. W., 2009, Changes of hot days and heat waves in China during 1961–2007. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 1452–1462.
Ding, T. and Ke, Z., 2013, Characteristics and changes of regional wet and dry heat wave events in China during 1960–2013, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 122, 651–665.
Dole, R., Hoerling, M., Perlwitz, J., Eischeid, J., Pegion, P., Quan, T., Xu, T. and Murray, D., 2011, Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06702.
Dolney, T. J. and Sheridan, S. C., 2006, The relationship between extreme heat and ambulance response calls for the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Environ. Res., 101, 94–103.
Fang, X. Q., Wang, A. Y., Fong, S. K., Lin, W. and Liu, J., 2008, Changes of reanalysis-derived Northern Hemisphere summer warm extreme indices during 1948– 2006 and links with climate variability. Glob. Planet Chang., 63, 67–78.
Farajzadeh, M. and Darand, M., 2008, Analysis of air temperature influence on mortality in Tehran. Hakim Res. J., 11, 27–34.
Fitchett, J. M., Grab, S. W., Thompson, D. I. and Roshan, G., 2014, Spatio-temporal variation in phenological response of citrus to climate change in Iran: 1960–2010. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 198–199, 285–293.
Frich, P., Alexander, L. V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A. M. G. and Peterson, T., 2002, Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim. Res., 19, 193–212.
Fouillet, A., Rey, G., Laurent, F., Pavillon, G., Bellec, S., Guihenneuc-Jouyaux, C., Clavel, J., Jougla, E. and Hémon, D., 2006, Excess mortality related to the August 2003 heat wave in France. Int. Arch. Occup. Environ. Health, 80, 16–24.
Giles, B. D. and Balafoutis, C. J., 1990, The Greek heat waves of 1987 and 1988. Int. J. Climatol., 10, 505–517.
Gosling, S. N., McGregor, G. R. and Pa´ldy, A., 2007, Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities. Part1: Model construction and validation. International Journal of Biometeorology, 51, 525. doi:10.1007/s00484-007-0092-9.
Haghshenas, M., Jafarian, E., Babamahmoodi, F., Tabrizi, A., Nandoost, S. and Alizadeh-Navaei, R., 2015, Prevalence of influenza a/H3N2 virus in northern Iran from 2011 to 2013. Caspian J. Intern. Med., 6, 116–119.
Hajat, S., Kovats, R., Atkinson, R. and Haines, A., 2002, Impact of hot temperatures on death in London: A time series approach. J. Epidemiol. Community Health, 56(5), 367–372, doi:10.1136/jech.56.5.367.
Heino, R., Brázdil, R., Førland, E., Tuomenvirta, H., Alexandersson, H., Beniston, M., Pfister, C., Rebetez, M., Rosenhagen, G., Rösner, S. and Wibig, J., 1999, Progress in the study of climate extremes in northern and central Europe. In: Thomas, K.R., Nicholls, N., Ghazi, A. (eds), Weather and climate extremes: changes, variations and a perspective from the insurance industry. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht.
Höppe, P. R., 1993, Heat balance modelling. Experientia, 49, 741–746.
Hua, L. J., Ma, Z. G. and Zeng, Z. M., 2006, The comparative analysis of the changes of extreme temperature and extreme diurnal temperature range of large cities and small towns in eastern China. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. (Chin), 30, 80–91.
IPCC, 2007, The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the fourth IPCC assessment report, chapter 11 regional climate projections. IPPC, Geneva.
IPCC, 2013, Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York.
Jendritzky, G. and Tinz, B., 2009, The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale. In: Kjellström T (ed) Heat, work and health: implications of climate change. Global Health Action, 2, 1–12.
Kalkstein, L. S. and Greene, J. S., 1997, An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change. Environ. Health Prespect., 105, 84–93.
Karl, T.R. and Trenberth, K. E., 2003, Modern global climate change. Science, 302, 1719–1723.
Khanjani, N. and Bahrampour, A., 2013, Temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in desert climate. A case study of Kerman, Iran. Iran J. Environ. Health Sci. Eng., 10, 1–6.
Klein Tank, A. M. G., Wijngaard, J. B., Können ,G. P.,  Böhm, R., Demarée, G., Gocheva, A., Ceylan, A., Pachaliuk, O., Alexander, L. V. and Petrovic, P., 2002, Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European climate assessment. Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1441–1453.
Kodra, E., Steinhaeuser, K. and Ganguly, A. R., 2011, Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047103.
Koppe, C., 2005, Gesundheitsrelevante Bewertung von thermischer Belastung unter Berücksichtigung der kurzfristigen Anpassung der Bevölkerung an die lokalen Witterungsverhältnisse. Berichte des Deutschen Wetterdienstes Nr. 226.
Koppe, C. and Jendritzky, G., 2005, Inclusion of short-termadaption to thermal stresses in a heat load warning procedure. Meteorol. Z., 14, 271–278.
Kyselý, J., 2002, Probability estimates of extreme temperature events: stochastic modelling approach vs. extreme value distributions. Stud. Geophys. Geod., 46, 93–112.
Levinson, D. H. and Waple, A. M., 2004, State of climate in 2003. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85 1–72.
Liu, L. L., Sun, L. H., Liao, Y. M., Zhu, Y. F., Zou, X. K., Wang, Y. M and Yan, J. H., 2008, Development and application of national prediction system for extreme high temperature. Meteorol. Mon. (Chin), 34, 102–107.
Makrogiannis, T., Balafoutis, Ch. and Pytharoulis, I., 2008, The Heat Waves over Balkans as an indicator of the climate change: a case study on August 2006. In: Maheras P, Zanis P, Anagnostopoulou C et al (eds), Proceedings of the 9th Conference of Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics. Thessaloniki, Greece, 417–423.
Manfred, D. and El-Tantawi, A., 2005, Recent temporal and spatial temperature changes in egypt manfred domroes, Int. J. Climatol.25: 51–63
Masoodian, S. A. and Darand, M., 2012, Analysis the sea level pressure anomalies during extreme cold temperature days of Iran. Geog. Environ. Plann. J., 23(1), 1–14.
Matzarakis, A. and Mayer, H., 1991, The extreme heat wave in Athens July 1987 from the point of view of human biometeorology. Atmos. Environ., 25, 203–211.
Matzarakis, A. and Mayer, H., 1996, Another kind of environmental stress: thermal stress. WHO News, 18, 7–10.
Matzarakis, A. and Mayer, H., 1997, Heat stress in Greece. Int. J. Biometeorol., 41, 34–39.
Matzarakis, A., Georgiadis, T. and Rossi, F., 2007a, Thermal bioclimate analysis for Europe and Italy. Il Nuovo Cimento, C30, 623–632.
Matzarakis, A. and Nastos, P. T., 2011, Human-biometeorological assessment of heat waves in Athens. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 105, 99–106.
Meehl, G. A., Tebaldi, C. and Nychka, D., 2004, Changes in frost days in simulations of twenty-first century climate. Clim. Dyn., 23, 495–511, doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0442-9.
Pantavou, K., Theoharatos, G. Nikolopoulos, G., Katavoutas, G. and Asimakopoulos, D., 2008, Evaluation of thermal discomfort in Athens territory and its effect on the daily number of recorded patients at hospitals’emergency rooms. Int. J. Biometeorol., 52, 773–778.
Rahimzadeh, F., Asgari, A. and Fattahi, E., 2009, Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 329–343.
Ramos, A. M., Trigo, R. M. and Santo, F. E., 2011, Evolution of extreme temperatures over Portugal: recent changes and future scenarios. Clim. Res., 48, 177–192.
Robeson, S. M., 2004, Trends in time‐varying percentiles of daily minimum and maximum temperature over North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L04203, doi:10.1029/2003GL019019.
Robinson, P. J., 2001, On the definition of a heat wave. J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 762–775.
Roshan, Gh. R., Rousta, I. and Ramesh, M., 2009, Studying the effects of urban sprawl of metropolis on tourism-climate index oscillation: a case study of Tehran city. J. Geogr. Reg. Plan., 2(12), 310–321.
Roshan, Gh. R., Zanganeh Shahraki, S., Sauri, D. and Borna, R., 2010, Urban sprawl and climatic changes in Tehran, Iran. J. Environ. Health Sci. Eng., 7(1), 43–52.
Roshan, Gh. R. and Grab, S., 2012, Regional climate change scenarios and their impacts on water requirements for wheat production in Iran. International Journal of Plant Production, 6(2), 239-266.
Roshan, Gh. R. and Orosa, J., 2015, Regional climate changes and their effects on monthly energy consumption in buildings in Iran. Natural Environment Change, 1(1), 31-48.
Roshan, Gh. R., Yousefi, R. and Fitchett, J. M., 2016a, Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability. International  Journal of Biometeorology, 60(1), 33-52.
Roshan, Gh. R., Yousefi, R., Kovács, A. and Matzarakis, A., 2016b, A comprehensive analysis of physiologically equivalent temperature changes of Iranian selected stations for the last half century. Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1950-3.
Roshan, Gh. R., Ghanghermeh, A. and Attia, S., 2017, Determining new threshold temperatures for cooling and heating degree day index of different climatic zones of Iran. Renew. Energy 101, 156–167.
Roshan, Gh. R., Ghanghermeh, A. and Kong, Q., 2018a, Spatial and temporal analysis of outdoor human thermal comfort during heat and cold waves in Iran, Weather and Climate Extremes. 19, 58–67.
Roshan, Gh. R., Almomenin, H., Hirashim, S. and Attia, S., 2018b, Estimate of outdoor thermal comfort zones for different climatic regions of Iran, Urban Climate. 27, 8–23.
Salimi, V., Tavakoli-Yaraki, M., Yavarian, J., Bont, L. and Mokhtari-Azad, T., 2016, Prevalence of human respiratory syncytial virus circulating in Iran. J. Infect. Public Health, 9, 125–135.
Schär, C., Vidale, P., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M. and Appenzeller, C., 2004, The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature, 427(January), 332–336. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02230.1.
Spinoni, J., Lakatos, M., Szentimrey, T., Bihari, Z., Szalai, S., Vogt, J. and Antofie, T., 2015, Heat and cold waves trends in the Carpathian Region from 1961 to 2010. Int. J. Climatol., 35, 4197–4209.
Tabari, H. and Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P., 2011, Analysis of trends in temperature data in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Glob. Planet. Chang., 79(1–2), 1–10.
Trenberth, K. and Fasullo, J., 2012, Climate extremes and climate change: the Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D17103, doi:10.1029/2012JD018020.
Twardosz, R. and Kossowska-Cezak, U., 2013, Exceptionally hot summers in Central and Eastern Europe (1951–2010). Theor. Appl. Climatol., 112, 617–628.
Unal, Y. S., Tan, E. and Mentes, S., 2013, Summer heat waves over western Turkey between 1965 and 2006. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 112, 339–350.
Unkašević, M. and Tošić, I., 2009, An
analysis of heat waves in Serbia. Glob.
Planet Chang., 65, 17–26, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.10.009.
Unkašević, M. and Tošić, I., 2011, The maximum temperatures and heat waves in Serbia during the summer of 2007. Clim. Chang., 108, 207–223.
Unkašević, M. and Tošić, I., 2013, Trends in temperature indices over Serbia: relationships to large-scale circulation patterns. Int. J. Climatol., 33, 3152–3161, doi:10.1002/joc.3652.
Unkašević, M. and Tošić, I., 2014, Seasonal analysis of cold and heat waves in Serbia during the period 1949–2012. Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1154-7.
Vavrus, S. J., Walsh, J. E., Chapman, W. L. and Portis, D., 2006, The behavior of extreme cold air outbreaks under greenhouse warming. Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1133–1147.
World Health Organization, 2003, The health impacts of 2003 summer heat waves, briefing notes for the delegations of the fifty-third session of the WHO (World Health Organization) regional committee for Europe. Switzerland, Geneva Beniston M (2004) The 2003 heat wave in Europe: a shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L02202.
Yan, Z., Jones, P. D., Davies, T. D., Moberg, A., Bergström, H., Camuffo, D., Cocheo, C., Maugeri, M., Demarée, G. R. and Yang, C., 2002, Trends of extreme temperatures in Europe and China based on daily observations. Clim. Chang., 53, 355–392.
Zaninović, K. and Matzarakis, A., 2014, Impact of heat waves on mortality in Croatia. Int. J. Biometeorol., 58, 1135–1145, doi:10.1007/s00484-013- 0706-3.
Zhai, P. M. and Pan, X. H., 2003, Trends in temperature extremes during 1951– 1999 in China. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2003GL018004.
Zhang, X., Aguilar, E., Sensoy, S., Melkonyan, H., Tagiyeva, U., Ahmed, N., Kutaladze, N., Rahimzadeh, F., Taghipour, A., Hantosh, T.H., Albert, P., Semawi, M., Karam Ali, M., Halal Said Al-Shabibi, M., Al-Oulan, Z., Zatari, T., Al Dean Khelet, I., Hammoud, S., Demircan, M., Eken, M., Adiguzel, M., Alexander, L., Peterson, T. and Wallis, T., 2005, Trends in middle east climate extremes indices during 1930–2003. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(D22), 104, doi:10.1029/2005JD 006181.
Zong, Z., Akimasa, S., Chikako, H. and Totu, N., 2003, Projections of Extreme Temperature Over East Asia for the 21st Century as Simulated by the CCSR/NIES2 Coupled Model. Proceeding of the International Symposium on Climate Change (ISCC), Beijing, China.