Prediction of temperature and precipitation in the statistical period 2021-2080 in Hormozgan province for drought extraction and its downscaling by LARS-WG software

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Expert, Hormozgan province Meteorological Administration, Bandar Abbas, Iran

2 Head of Atmospheric observation and Warning Network, Hormozgan province Meteorological Administration, Bandar Abbas, Iran

3 Head of Applied Meteorological Research Group, Hormozgan province Meteorological Administration, Bandar Abbas, Iran

4 Assistant Professor, Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological quantities that its decrease compared to normal amounts in a period of time causes drought. In this study, statistical microscale methods were used to project and simulate climatic quantities to determine future drought indices of Hormozgan province using the LARS-WG model. For this study, climatic data of synoptic stations of Hormozgan province as well as 5 models of general atmospheric circulation including CanESM2, HadGEM-ES2, MPI-ESM-MR, GFDL-CM3 and MIROC5 with RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used. The capability of the fifth report models was evaluated using coefficient of determination, mean square error (MSE) and Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE). The results of evaluating the data generated in the LARS-WG model with climatic data showed that the highest coefficients of determination were related to the parameters of minimum and maximum temperatures (99%) and precipitation (94%), respectively. The results of studies of changes in climate parameters with the models of the fifth report in all periods indicate an increase in minimum and maximum temperatures in all these models in different climatic scenarios in future periods, and as we move away from the base period 2040-2021, the rate of temperature changes increases. The rate of increase in minimum temperature in most models is higher than the annual maximum temperature over the next 20 to 80 years and indicates that the increase in temperature in Hormozgan province will be more affected by the increase in minimum temperature. Examination of the results of different climatic scenarios shows that according to the optimistic scenario, precipitation changes in Hormozgan province are increasing and this increase in precipitation in the east and northeast will be more than the base period. Accordingly, the largest increase will occur in the period 2060-2041, which will be greater in the east and northeast (especially the city of Rudan). In this scenario, the least amount of rainfall occurs in the central areas and islands and part of the west of the province. According to the optimistic and moderate scenarios, precipitation changes in Hormozgan province are increasing and this increase in precipitation in the east and northeast is more than yhat of the base period. Also in the center and north of the province the precipitation will be less. The highest increase in precipitation in the period 2060-2041 by 4-64 mm varies in the stations of the province and this increase is in the east and northeast (Rudan city) by 64 mm. In this scenario, the least amount of rain will occur in the central and northern areas and part of the west of the province in Parsian city. According to the pessimistic scenario, the precipitation changes in Hormozgan province are increasing and this increase in precipitation in the east and northeast will be more than that of the base period. Accordingly, the highest rain increase in the period 2080-2061 is 13-90 mm in the stations of the province and this increase is 90 mm in the east and northeast (Rudan city). In this scenario, the least amount of rain will occur in Bandar Khamir city and the islands and part of the west of the province. In this scenario, the amount of rainfall in Bastak city increases significantly. In general, most of the models show an increase in rainfall in all three periods, so that the average of all models in each of the three scenarios of increased rainfall, especially in the east and north of Hormozgan province (highlands). In most meteorological stations of Hormozgan province, the highest increase in rainfall is predicted by CanESM2 model with RCP8.5 scenario and in the period 2080-2061.

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References

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Journal of the Earth and Space Physics
Volume 48, Issue 3
online publication date: 6 December 2022
December 2022
Pages 693-712

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