Seasonal assessment of fire weather index (FWI) in the forest regions of Iran using an ensemble of ECMWF-ERA5

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Department of Geography, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Department of Geography, Faculty of Dr. Ali Shariati Letters and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

Abstract

Since one of the important steps in the management of natural areas is to know when and where the wildfire is more likely to occur or where it has a more negative effect, examining and preparing a fire risk map of sensitive and high-risk areas is crusial. In terms of wildfires, this is one of the main necessities in wildfires control and management. Wildfire risk indicators can be very useful for predicting areas with wildfire risk potential. One of the most widely used wildfire risk indices is the Forest service fire Weather Index (FWI), which has been based on the Canadian forest service fire risk rating system since 1971.
In order to evaluate the effectiveness of FWI indicators in identifying wildfire-prone areas in the vegetation areas of Iran from the climate variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation of 53 meteorological stations were monitored on a daily basis for the period of 1981-2020. In order to analyze the climate of the vegetation areas under investigation, combined satellite product of burned areas and FWI indices during the period (1981-2020) were used. After downloading and an initial processing, the examined indicators were coilculated for the border of Iran. Then, their time series was analyzed, using zonal statistics. Than the area-averaged of each of Iran's forest regions was calculated, and their seasonal maps were prepared by the kriging interpolation method. Finally, the Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to determine the relationship and correlation between FWI indices and burned areas.
The results of the analysis of the combined satellite product of the burned areas showed that the maximum extent of wildfire in the forest regions of Iran is related to the summer season. In this season, a large part of the country's forests, especially in the forest regions of Arsbaran, that has the occurrence of wildfires, and the minimum amount of wildfire was related to the spring season, which was observed in a limited area in the southwest of Iran. The values of atmospheric fire indicators vary according to the different characteristics of forest regions such as vegetation, topography, and climate. The drier parts of the south, east, and southeast of Iran mainly have the highest values of FWI indices, which shows that the increase in temperature and drought affects the moisture content and, as a result, increases the occurrence and spread of fire. The FWI indices in spring for all forest regions of Iran have a high efficiency for identifying areas with wildfire occurrences. Also, in the hot season of the year, when most wildfires occur in the vegetation areas of Iran, FFMC and FWI indices had the best performances.
According to the climate variability and topography of Iran's forests, it is difficult to control the occurrence of fire. Hence identifying wildfire critical areas, and determining and preparing a map of fire-risk areas is an effective step in helping forest managers to plan and manage high-risk areas in terms of fire. In addition to this, wildfire atmospheric indices obtained with high horizontal resolution can help better understand the spatiotemporal variability of fire risk, especially in Iran with its complex and diverse topography.

Keywords

Main Subjects


اسکندری، س. و اسکندری، س. (1400). آتش‌سوزی جنگل‌های ایران، پیامدها، روش‌های مقابله و راهکارها. انسان و محیط‌زیست، 19(1)، 175-187.
حیدری، م.؛ عطار روشن، س.؛ جافریان، ا. و عبیات، م. (1400). مدل‌سازی و پهنه‌بندی مناطق مستعد آتش‌سوزی در جنگل‌های زاگرس با استفاده از سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی بر پایه رگرسیون لجستیک. جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی، 10(2)،43-58.
خان‌محمدی، م.؛ رحیمی، م. و کرتولی نژاد، د. (1395). تحلیل خطر آتش‌سوزی جنگل‏های هیرکانی شمال‌شرق ایران با استفاده از شاخص‌های کچ-بایرام و مک-آرتور. تحقیقات حمایت و حفاظت جنگلها و مراتع ایران، 14(1)، 48-57.
دشتی، ش.؛ امینی، ج.؛ احمدی ثانی، ن. و جوانمرد، ع. (1400). پهنه‌‌بندی مناطق مستعد آتش‌‌سوزی در بوم‌‌سازگان‌‌های جنگلی زاگرس شمالی (مطالعه موردی: جنگل‌‌های سردشت درآذربایجان غربی). مخاطرات محیط طبیعی، 10(30)، 105-126.
 
رحیمی، د. و خادمی، س. (1397). تحلیل الگوهای همدید خطرآتش‌‌سوزی در جنگل­‌های شمال ایران (استان گلستان). مخاطرات محیط طبیعی، 7(17)، 19-36.
شیخی، م.؛ رحیمی، م. و کابلی، ح. (1392). بررسی خطر آتش­سوزی جنگل با استفاده از شاخصهای مبتنی‌بر پارامترهای اقلیمی (مطالعه موردی: استان مازندران). پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده کویرشناسی، دانشگاه سمنان.
عزیزی، م.؛ پوررضا، م. و خسروی، م. (1399). تغییرات زمانی و مکانی رخدادهای آتش‌سوزی در عرصه‌های طبیعی استان کرمانشاه و ارتباط آن با عوامل محیطی، پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد، رشته علوم مهندسی جنگل، دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه.
مرکز پژوهش­های مجلس شواری اسلامی. (1399). علل، آثار، چالش ها و راهکارهای مقابله با آتش‌سوزی‏های جنگل ها و مراتع کشور، گزارش کارشناسی با شماره 17288، تهران.
موذنی، ن.؛ سیاح نیا، ر. و اسماعیل‌زاده، ح. (1397). پهنه­بندی ریسک آتش­سوزی جنگل در بیوم زاگرس (مطالعه موردی استان کردستان). پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.
Amiro, B. D., Logan, K. A., Wotton, B. M., Flannigan, M. D., Todd, J. B., Stocks, B. J., & Martell, D. L. (2004). Fire weather index system components for large fires in the Canadian boreal forest. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 13(4), 391-400.
Archibald, S., Lehmann, C. E., Gómez-Dans, J. L., & Bradstock, R. A. (2013). Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(16), 6442-6447.
Baidoc, R., & Cornwell, A. R. (2016). Using fine fuel moisture codes to understand the effects of climate change on the eastern boreal forests of Canada. Prairie Perspectives: Geographical Essays, 18, 42-49.
Bedia, J., Herrera, S., Gutiérrez, J. M., Zavala, G., Urbieta, I. R., & Moreno, J. M. (2012). Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12(3), 699-708.
Blanchi, R., Leonard, J., Haynes, K., Opie, K., James, M., & de Oliveira, F. D. (2014). Environmental circumstances surrounding bushfire fatalities in Australia 1901–2011. Environmental Science & Policy, 37, 192-203
Briggs, C. M., Price, R., & Pearce, H. G. (2005). Spatial prediction of wildfire hazard across New Zealand: a significant upgrade. Landcare Research.
Calheiros, T., Pereira, M. G., & Nunes, J. P. (2021). Assessing impacts of future climate change on extreme fire weather and pyro-regions in Iberian Peninsula. Science of The Total Environment, 754, 142233.
Chuvieco, E., Aguado, I., Yebra, M., Nieto, H., Salas, J., Martín, M. P., Vilar, L., Martínez, J., Martín, S., Ibarra, P., de la Riva, J., Baeza, J., Rodríguez, F., Molina, J. R., Herrera, M. A., & Zamora, R. (2010). Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies. Ecological Modelling, 221(1), 46-58
Di Giuseppe, F., Vitolo, C., Krzeminski, B., Barnard, C., Maciel, P., & San-Miguel, J. (2020). Fire Weather Index: the skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 20(8), 2365-2378.
Dimitrakopoulos, A. P., Bemmerzouk, A. M., & Mitsopoulos, I. D. (2011). Evaluation of the Canadian fire weather index system in an eastern Mediterranean environment. Meteorological Applications, 18(1), 83-93.
Dowdy, A. J., Mills, G. A., Finkele, K., & De Groot, W. (2009). Australian fire weather as represented by the McArthur forest fire danger index and the Canadian forest fire weather index (p. 91). Melbourne: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research.
Grillakis, M., Voulgarakis, A., Rovithakis, A., Seiradakis, K.D., Koutroulis, A., Field, R.D., Kasoar, M., Papadopoulos, A., & Lazaridis, M. (2022). Climate drivers of global wildfire burned area. Environmental Research Letters, 17(4), 045021.
Groot, W. J. D., Field, R. D., Brady, M. A., Roswintiarti, O., & Mohamad, M. (2007). Development of the Indonesian and Malaysian fire danger rating systems. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12, 165-180.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara,G., Dahlgren,P., Dee,D., Diamantakis,M., Dragani,R., Flemming,J., Forbes,R., Fuentes,M., Geer, A., Haimberger,L., Healy,S., Hogan,R., Hólm,E., Janisková,M., Keeley,S., Laloyaux,P., Lopez,P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay,P., Rozum,I., Vamborg,F., Villaume,S., & Thépaut,J. (2020). The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146(730), 1999-2049.
Karali, A., Hatzaki, M., Giannakopoulos, C., Roussos, A., Xanthopoulos, G., & Tenentes, V. )2014( Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.,14, 143–153
Lawson, B. D., & Armitage, O. B. (2008). Weather guide for the Canadian forest fire danger rating system.
Littell, J. S., McKenzie, D., Peterson, D. L., & Westerling, A. L. (2009). Climate and wildfire area burned in western US ecoprovinces, 1916–2003. Ecological Applications, 19(4), 1003-1021.
Mansouri Daneshvar, M.R., Ebrahimi, M. & Nejadsoleymani, H. (2019). An overview of climate change in Iran: facts and statistics. Environmental Systems Research, 8(1), 1-10.
Miri, M., Masoompour Samakosh, J., Raziei, T., Jalilian, A., & Mahmodi, M. (2021). Spatial and temporal variability of temperature in Iran for the twenty-first century foreseen by the CMIP5 GCM models. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 178(1), 169-184.
Oliver, M. A., & Webster, R. (1990). Kriging: a method of interpolation for geographical information systems. International Journal of Geographical Information System, 4(3), 313-332.
Penttilä, R., Junninen, K., Punttila, P., & Siitonen, J. (2013). Effects of forest restoration by fire on polypores depend strongly on time since disturbance–a case study from Finland based on a 23-year monitoring period. Forest Ecology and Management, 310, 508-516.
Pereira, M. G., Trigo, R. M., da Camara, C. C., Pereira, J. M., & Leite, S. M. (2005). Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 129(1-2), 11-25.
San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Carlson, J. D., Alexander, M., Tolhurst, K., Morgan, G., Sneeuwjagt, R., & Dudley, M. (2003). Current methods to assess fire danger potential. In Wildland fire danger estimation and mapping: The role of remote sensing data, (pp. 21-61).
Sharples, J. J., McRae, R. H., Weber, R. O., & Gill, A. M. (2009). A simple index for assessing fire danger rating. Environmental Modelling & Software, (24(6, 764-774.
Steinfeld, D., Peter, A., Martius, O., & Brönnimann, S. (2022). Assessing the performance of various fire weather indices for wildfire occurrence in Northern Switzerland. EGUsphere, 1-23.
Tarek, M., Brissette, F. P., & Arsenault, R. (2020). Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis as a potential reference dataset for hydrological modelling over North America. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24(5), 2527-2544.
Taylor, S. W., & Alexander, M. E. (2006). Science, technology, and human factors in fire danger rating: the Canadian experience. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 15(1), 121-135.
Tian, X., McRae, D. J., Jin, J., Shu, L., Zhao, F., & Wang, M. (2010). Changes of forest fire danger and the evaluation of the FWI System application in the Daxing'anling region. Scientia silvae sinicae, 46(5), 127-132.
Tyukavina, A., Potapov, P., Hansen, M.C., Pickens, A., Stehman, S., Turubanova, S., Parker, D., Zalles, V., Lima, A., Kommareddy, I., Song, X-P, Wang, L., & Harris, N. (2022) Global trends of forest loss due to fire, 2001-2019. Frontiers in Remote Sensing.
Ullah, M. R., Liu, X. D., & Al-Amin, M. (2013). Spatial-temporal distribution of forest fires and fire weather index calculation from 2000 to 2009 in China. Journal of Forest Science, 59(7), 279-287.
Van Wagner, C. E., & Pickett, T. L. (1985). Equations and FORTRAN program for the Canadian forest fire weather index system, (Vol. 33).
Varela, V., Sfetsos, A., Vlachogiannis, D., & Gounaris, N. (2018). Fire Weather Index (FWI) classification for fire danger assessment applied in Greece. Tethys, 15, 31-40.
Yang, Q., Kang, Q., Huang, Q., Cui, Z., Bai, Y., & Wei, H. (2021). Linear correlation analysis of ammunition storage environment based on Pearson correlation analysis. In Journal of physics: Conference series, 1948(1), 012064. IOP Publishing.