Energy Estimation as Earthquake Precursor, Using the Energy of the Radiated Particles with the Help of Monte Carlo Methods

Scientists have observed variations in the Earth's electromagnetic fields and radiation of some particles like low or high-energy photons, neutrons, protons, etc before, during, and after earthquakes, leading to the hypothesis that changes in particles' energy and flux signals could potentially serve as precursors to seismic activity. These anomalies could be detected using magnetometers, electric field sensors, nuclear particle detectors, and other monitoring devices. Researchers are investigating whether monitoring these signals could provide valuable insights into the build-up of stress along fault lines and the potential for an impending earthquake.

Bahari et al. (2022) employed piezoelectricity principles and elastic energy formulas along with the MCNPX simulation code to investigate the generation of atomic/nuclear particles, predominant interactions, and potential particle energies in quartz and granite blocks under mechanical stress. They demonstrated that in large granite blocks, nuclear particle creation is primarily driven by photonuclear interactions resulting from Bremsstrahlung gamma-ray photons due to runaway electron avalanches under stress conditions. Furthermore, they presented formulas to estimate the quantity and energies of various particles generated on a surface when a piezoelectric block is subjected to varying uniaxial stresses.

Bahari et al. (2024) also highlighted the estimation of particle flux from under-stressed granitic rocks using the MCNPX code at different distances from the earthquake hypocenter inside the fractures filled with air, water, and CO2. The study reveals that gases like air and CO2 can facilitate particle flux far from the seismic source, with potential detection on the surface. Especially for deep earthquakes, the vacuum-filled fractures can facilitate the radiated nuclear particles to reach the surface.

In addition, Bahari & Mohammadi (2024) simulated the nuclear interactions between the created neutrons from under-stressed piezoelectric rocks and the elements of granite plus the elements of fractures’ filling fluids. The results indicate that compound nuclear reactions like fusion/ fission/ inelastic scattering can happen, resulting in the release of energy from the depths of the Earth in the aseismic regions. Furthermore, compound nuclear interactions from the piezoelectric effect can generate some stable isotopes like deuterium (2H), carbon (C), or oxygen (O) and also some radioisotopes in the granitic rock texture or inside the fracture-filling fluids. Hence, their study illustrates that an increase in the amount of deuterium or CO2 in the water/ air of an aseismic region would be two important precursors of incoming earthquakes.

In this study, utilizing the relationships between the energy of atomic/nuclear particles released from underground piezoelectric rocks and the elastic energy, stored in these rocks, we introduced some methods to estimate the time/energy of incoming earthquakes in aseismic regions by measuring the energy of radiated particles. Since piezoelectric granite rocks make up approximately 60% of the Earth's crust, the increase in the energy of the detected particles in a certain period of time can be considered as an important precursor for the impending shallow earthquake. This analysis holds significant promise for enhancing earthquake time and energy estimation methodologies. It is worth mentioning that the detection of radiated particles from piezoelectric rocks can be achieved by utilizing detectors placed either on the surface or inside deep wells that are drilled near active faults. It should be mentioned that the most detected particles are likely to pass through vacuum-filled or lightweight fluid-filled fractures and reach the detectors. Furthermore, it is important to note that the introduced methods are approximate estimations, as they assume constant parameters for the piezoelectric rock. In addition, we have supposed the earthquake happened in a piezoelectric block. If the earthquake does not occur in such types of rocks and does not emit any atomic or nuclear particles, it cannot be predicted using the mentioned approaches.