Spatial uncertainty reducing in M8 algorithm using potential earthquake sources

Shadmanaman, Navid; Mirzaei, Noorbakhsh; Ghods, Abdolreza; Negarestani, Ali; Keshvari, Forogh

doi:10.22059/jesphys.2006.80035

Spatial uncertainty reducing in M8 algorithm using potential earthquake sources

Authors

Navid Shadmanaman ¹

Noorbakhsh Mirzaei ¹

Abdolreza Ghods ²

Ali Negarestani ³

Forogh Keshvari ¹

¹ Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6466, Tehran, Iran

² Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS) P.O. Box 451195-1159

³ Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, P.O. Box 14155-1339

10.22059/jesphys.2006.80035

Abstract

M8 algorithm is a well-known method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. The predicted area by M8 algorithm includes relatively extensive territory. Since earthquakes occur in places where enough potential for accumulating stress exists, by limiting the predicted area to them, spatial uncertainty of M8 algorithm can be reduced. In this work, at first, we tested this method for the Rudbar and Bam earthquakes as M8 algorithm could predict them well. Then, areas of forward (future) earthquake prediction by M8 algorithm were tested by this method. The results show considerable reduction of predicted area using potential earthquake sources.

Keywords

M8 algorithm

Spatial uncertainty

Potential earthquake sources

Intermediate-term earthquake prediction

Seismic precursors