Intermediate earthquake prediction in Iran by M8 algorithm


1 Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6466, Tehran, Iran

2 Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS) P.O. Box 451195-1159


The M8 algorithm for earthquake prediction is used for intermediate-term prediction of large earthquakes (M6.5) in Iran. The M8 algorithm analyzes premonitory seismic activities prior to the occurrence of large earthquakes. The seismic precursors are used to identify times of increased probability (TIP) for a given region. Duration of each TIP or alarm announced by M8 algorithm is 5 years that includes the area several times larger than the causative earthquake source. Up to now, several large earthquakes have been successfully predicted by M8 algorithm in the world. In this work, forward earthquake predictions are tested in Iranian territory using this algorithm. The M8 algorithm identifies candidate areas for oncoming earthquakes. These TIPs include areas of the west and southwest of Iran.