نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 پژوهشکده هواشناسی
2 Discipline of Physics, School of Chemistry and Physics, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X54001, Durban 4000, South Africa
3 Discipline of Physics, School of Chemistry and Physics, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X54001, Durban 4000, South Africa Center for the Development of Advanced Technologies (CDTA), Algiers, Algeria
4 S. V. Raman Researchers Roadmap, Westville, Durban 4000, South Africa
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
In recent decades, the frequency and intensity of wildfires have increased in many parts of the world due to the combined effects of climate change, land-use changes, and fuel buildup. Iran, particularly its western and southwestern regions, has witnessed a growing number of forest and pasture fires, causing severe environmental and socioeconomic consequences. Understanding the drivers and ignition mechanisms of these wildfires is therefore a pressing research need, especially in the context of arid and semi-arid landscapes where climatic extremes are becoming more pronounced. Wildfires in forested and pasture areas of Iran have increased in recent years, raising concerns about their ignition sources and environmental drivers. Among natural causes, lightning—particularly dry lightning—plays a significant role in initiating wildfires under specific meteorological conditions. This study aims to analyze the contribution of dry lightning to major wildfire events in Iran’s Zagros region during May 2020 and June 2019. To achieve this, we utilized a combination of satellite-based fire data from FIRMS and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN), which offers high spatial and temporal resolution. In addition, meteorological datasets and reanalysis models were employed to assess drought conditions and fire-conducive weather patterns across the Zagros region. Key indices such as the Fire Weather Index (FWI), Fire Danger Index (FDI), Burned Area Index (BI), Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) were applied to evaluate fire potential under dry and unstable conditions. Burn severity was assessed using Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, allowing for fine-resolution monitoring of fire impacts before and after the events.
Our results reveal a strong correlation between wildfire activity and lightning occurrences, particularly in areas characterized by dry vegetation, elevated temperatures, and low precipitation. These meteorological and fuel conditions align with patterns of atmospheric instability, providing favorable environments for dry thunderstorms. Quantitative validation during the two wildfire events confirms that fires were most intense on days when dry lightning coincided with elevated Fire Weather Index (FWI) values. For instance, June 6 and 7, 2019 recorded 4332 and 4833 dry lightning strikes, FWI values of 33.8 and 39.4, and over 900 high-confidence fire detections each day. Similarly, May 20 and 21, 2020 exhibited peaks in all three variables, with up to 5773 lightning strikes and mean FWI values exceeding 24. These findings substantiate the synergistic role of dry lightning and flammable fuel conditions in wildfire ignition and underscore the importance of multi-variable monitoring for fire risk assessment. This study demonstrates the value of integrating satellite-based fire observations, lightning detection systems, and meteorological indicators to better understand wildfire dynamics in semi-arid environments. It highlights the mechanisms behind dry lightning-induced fire outbreaks and provides evidence to support the development of early warning systems, proactive risk management, and adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. Moreover, the observed correlation between dry lightning and fire-prone days in the Zagros region suggests that such events may become more frequent and severe under projected climate warming scenarios, necessitating improved monitoring networks and region-specific fire policies to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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