Geomagnetic Disturbance Impact on Magnetic Survey Tool Errors in High-Latitude Directional Drilling

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 The Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.

2 Department of Informatics, Ufa University of Science and Technology, Ufa, Russia.

10.22059/jesphys.2026.404857.1007734

چکیده

This paper presents an approach to develop a proactive probabilistic model for assessing extreme errors in magnetic surveying tools caused by geomagnetic disturbances in the Arctic aurora zone, with the aim of enhancing the efficiency of directional drilling and accounting for risks that go beyond reactive compensation methods.
Analysis of high-resolution geomagnetic data (2004-2005) from 12 auroral observatories reveals that the absolute additional error in magnetic declination (|ΔD|) follows a composite statistical law. The core of the distribution (~84% of data) is lognormal (shape parameter s = 0.87 for |ΔDmean| and s = 1.02 for |ΔDmax|), indicating error formation via multiplicative ionospheric processes. Critically, the tails (~16%) are heavy and obey a Pareto distribution, signaling a substantial risk of extreme events. We quantify that the maximum synchronous error (|ΔDmax|) exceeds 5.67° with a 1% probability, even during the solar cycle's declining phase. A distinct diurnal pattern with dual maxima suggests an optimal time windows for precision drilling operations.
The established lognormal-Pareto model facilitates a paradigm shift towards proactive risk management in high-latitude drilling. Our findings underscore the statistical insufficiency of mean-error approaches and quantify a significant probability of extreme azimuthal errors due to space weather. This study provides a foundation for developing decision-support systems, optimizing operational schedules, and informing stricter metrological standards for Arctic drilling equipment.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Geomagnetic Disturbance Impact on Magnetic Survey Tool Errors in High-Latitude Directional Drilling

نویسندگان [English]

  • Andrei V. Vorobev 1
  • Gulnara R. Vorobeva 2
1 The Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
2 Department of Informatics, Ufa University of Science and Technology, Ufa, Russia.
چکیده [English]

This paper presents an approach to develop a proactive probabilistic model for assessing extreme errors in magnetic surveying tools caused by geomagnetic disturbances in the Arctic aurora zone, with the aim of enhancing the efficiency of directional drilling and accounting for risks that go beyond reactive compensation methods.
Analysis of high-resolution geomagnetic data (2004-2005) from 12 auroral observatories reveals that the absolute additional error in magnetic declination (|ΔD|) follows a composite statistical law. The core of the distribution (~84% of data) is lognormal (shape parameter s = 0.87 for |ΔDmean| and s = 1.02 for |ΔDmax|), indicating error formation via multiplicative ionospheric processes. Critically, the tails (~16%) are heavy and obey a Pareto distribution, signaling a substantial risk of extreme events. We quantify that the maximum synchronous error (|ΔDmax|) exceeds 5.67° with a 1% probability, even during the solar cycle's declining phase. A distinct diurnal pattern with dual maxima suggests an optimal time windows for precision drilling operations.
The established lognormal-Pareto model facilitates a paradigm shift towards proactive risk management in high-latitude drilling. Our findings underscore the statistical insufficiency of mean-error approaches and quantify a significant probability of extreme azimuthal errors due to space weather. This study provides a foundation for developing decision-support systems, optimizing operational schedules, and informing stricter metrological standards for Arctic drilling equipment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Space weather
  • Geomagnetic disturbances
  • Magnetic survey tool
  • Directional drilling
  • Risk assessment
  • Additional error
  • Extreme value statistics

مراجع

Beggan, C. D., Brown, W. J., Cox, G. A., et al. (2021). The BGS candidate models for IGRF-13 with a retrospective analysis of IGRF-12 secular variation forecasts. Earth, Planets and Space, 73, 42. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-020-01301-3
Chang, J. L., & Jung, K. L. (2025). Highly accurate accelerometer- and magnetometer-based elevation and azimuth estimation procedure under stationary conditions. Journal of Sensor Science and Technology, 34(1), 8–18. https://doi.org/10.46670/JSST.2025.34.1.8
Daniel, Wayne W. (1990). Kolmogorov–Smirnov one-sample test. Applied Nonparametric Statistics (2nd ed.). Boston: PWS-Kent. pp. 319–330.
Farcomeni, A., & Geraci, M. (2024). Quantile ratio regression. Statistics and Computing, 34, 94. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10406-8
Gjerloev, J. W. (2012). The SuperMAG data processing technique. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 117(A9), A09213. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JA017683
Gvishiani, A., Lukianova, R., & Soloviev, A. (2015). Geomagnetic field analysis and directional drilling problem in the Arctic region. GornyiZhurnal, (10), 94–99. https://doi.org/10.17580/gzh.2015.10.17
Kataoka, R., & Ngwira, C. (2016). Extreme geomagnetically induced currents. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 3, 23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-016-0104-7
Kovalev, D. V., Vorobev, A. V., Valchuk, A. S., et al. (2025). Assessment of the Effects of Space Weather on the Reliability of Readings of Magnetic Inclinometers. Cosmic Research, 63(6), 582–590.https://doi.org/10.1134/S001095252560177X
Kudin, D. V., Gvishiani, A. D., Nikitina, L. V., et al. (2024). Storage and processing of big data for geomagnetic support of directional drilling. Applied Sciences, 14(21), 9730. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14219730
Marshall, R. A., Smith, E. A., Francis, M. J., Waters, C. L., &Sciffer, M. D. (2021). A preliminary risk assessment of the Australian region power network to space weather. Space Weather, 19(9), e2021SW002925. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002925
Pilipenko, V. A., Chernikov, A. A., Soloviev, A. A., Yagova, N. V., Sakharov, Y. A., Kudin, D. V., Kostarev, D. V., Kozyreva, O. V., Vorobev, A. V., & Belov, A. V. (2023). Influence of space weather on the reliability of the transport system functioning at high latitudes. Russian Journal of Earth Sciences, 23(2), 1–34. https://doi.org/10.2205/2023ES000824
Soloviev, A. A. (2024). Geomagnetic support for directional drilling. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 94(10), 885–891. https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869587324100023
Švanda, M., Smičková, A., &Výbošťoková, T. (2021). Modelling of geomagnetically induced currents in the Czech transmission grid. Earth, Planets and Space, 73, 229. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-021-01552-8
Thébault, E., Finlay, C. C., Toh, H., et al. (2015). International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the 12th generation. Earth, Planets and Space, 67, 158. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-015-0228-9
Vorobev, A. V. (2017). Assessment of the influence of geomagnetic activity on the metrological characteristics of inclinometric information-measuring systems. Izmeritel'naya Tekhnika, (6), 21–24.
Vorobev, A. V., Lapin, A. N., Soloviev, A. A., & Vorobeva, G. R. (2024). An approach to interpreting natural indicators of the state of space weather to assess the effects of its impact on high-latitude power systems. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, (4), 100–110. https://doi.org/10.31857/S0002333724040071
Vorobev, A. V., Soloviev, A. A., Pilipenko, V. A., & Vorobeva, G. R. (2022). Interactive computer model for aurora forecast and analysis. Solnechno-Zemnaya Fizika, 8(2), 93–100. https://doi.org/10.12737/szf-82202213
Vorobev, A., Soloviev, A., Pilipenko, V., Vorobeva, G., & Sakharov, Y. (2022). An approach to diagnostics of geomagnetically induced currents based on ground magnetometers data. Applied Sciences, 12(3), 1522. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12031522
Yang, C., Zeng, Q., Xiong, Z., & Yang, J. (2024). IMU/Magnetometer-based azimuth estimation with norm constraint filtering. Sensors, 24(10), 2982. https://doi.org/10.3390/s24102982
Yang, J., Cai, J., & Wang, S. (2024). Online compensation of geomagnetic measurement errors while drilling. IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement, 73, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIM.2024.3379082
Zhang, Y., Msangi, S., Edmonds, J., & Waldhoff, S. (2024). Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets. Scientific Reports, 14, 6699. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-54007-x
فیزیک زمین و فضا
دوره 51، شماره 4
تاریخ انتشار الکترونیکی: 26 اسفند 1404
اسفند 1404
صفحه 65-73

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار