Observed heat wave assessment over Iran and its future projections through 2200 under SSP scenarios

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نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 Research Institute for Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Research Center, Mashhad

2 Research Institute for Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Climate Research Center, Mashhad, Iran

3 Research Institute for Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Climate Research Institute, Mashhad, Iran

4 Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Industrial Engineering-Systems Optimization

چکیده

Iran is experiencing a marked rise in heat wave frequency, duration, and intensity, creating serious socio economic and environmental challenges. This study provides the first nation wide assessment of heat wave trends from 1961 – 2023 and projects their evolution from 2031 to 2200 under multiple Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs). Daily maximum temperature records were bias corrected using Quantile Mapping, which raised the Kling Gupta Efficiency of all CMIP6 models from 0.60–0.76 to 0.81–0.95 for the historical period (1985–2014). Observations reveal the strongest increases in Tehran, southwestern Iran, and the central Zagros. Future simulations based on the corrected data show that under the high emission SSP5 8.5 scenario, individual heat wave events could last from a week to an entire season, while their overall frequency declines because of the prolonged duration of each event. Intermediate SSPs (SSP2 4.5) project peak durations of roughly one season by the end of the 21st century, followed by a gradual reduction in the 22nd century. In contrast, the optimistic SSP1 2.6 pathway yields shorter events, peaking at about one month in the late 21st century and shrinking to ~1 week by the late 22nd century—similar to the baseline (1961 1990) record. The analysis highlights substantial spatial variability across Iran’s diverse regions. These long term, scenario based projections are essential for designing effective adaptation measures, urban planning strategies, and targeted mitigation actions.

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فیزیک زمین و فضا

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 10 تیر 1405

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